Bird Flu in Scotland

BiscLimpkit · Post by **BiscLimpkit** » 05 Apr 2006, 21:28

Will found out soon if it's the deadly H5N1 strain. Dead swan located in Fife.

gasteropod · Post by **gasteropod** » 05 Apr 2006, 21:30

I was under the impression that swans died of other causes.

BiscLimpkit · Post by **BiscLimpkit** » 05 Apr 2006, 21:33

Sorry I should've made it clear that the swan has been tested positive for bird flu. But it's unknown if it's the H5N1 strain.

romerojpg · Post by **romerojpg** » 05 Apr 2006, 21:59

Of cource its going to be the Bird plague (in the end) as we are doing bugger all to stop it coming into the UK!

get ready for mass extermination and many over worried people running about.

The thing is we knew it was coming a year ago, it was always a time thing really.

Mordib · Post by **Mordib** » 06 Apr 2006, 08:39

here you go, how about some facts about bird flu... sources are about 2/3rds new scientist articles, 1/3rd a guest article in the guardian a few weeks back. I realise the following might take a whole 5 minutes to read unlike the 2 seconds needed to read a tabloid shock headline but really, do yourselves a favour and hear both sides...

Think again Common misconceptions

A regular flu shot will help protect you from bird flu

No, it won't - it will help protect you from regular flu. If bird flu turns into a human pandemic then you'll need pandemic vaccine.

However, ordinary flu vaccination is a good idea for people closely exposed to birds with flu. By preventing people being infected by human and bird viruses at the same time, it could stop the viruses swapping genes to form a pandemic strain.

This is all just a load of scaremongering, like SARS and AIDS, and they didn't turn out to be nearly as bad as we were told they would be

That SARS didn't become any worse was largely due to the prompt, massive international response to limit it, after what some now call scaremongering. And to a bit of luck: SARS didn't become infectious until after an infected person developed symptoms, so we could tell who to quarantine. Flu, by contrast, can be infectious for a day before symptoms develop. As for AIDS, 40 million people worldwide are now HIV-positive. If that isn't a disaster, what is?

More people should get ordinary flu vaccinations, because with more of a market for that vaccine, companies will have an incentive to build more vaccine plants

This idea is touted by a lot of experts, but it is a bit like saying, "If people ate more, farmers would have an incentive to grow more food and there would be no more starvation."
Certainly, more people who can afford it should get regular flu shots, and manufacturers could perhaps then build a few more, and more modern, vaccine factories. But most people in the world cannot afford flu vaccination. There is not enough of a market for ordinary flu vaccine to support the vaccine plants needed to supply pandemic vaccine to the entire world, whether or not this suits free-market ideology.

Why are we stockpiling Tamiflu? It doesn't stop flu, it only shortens its duration and it makes kids crazy

The visible effect of Tamiflu on ordinary flu is to shorten the duration of symptoms. This has led to the notion that it is merely a symptomatic treatment, like using aspirin to reduce fever.

No, it does slow viral replication, giving the immune system more time to kick in. That makes flu symptoms less severe, which could make the difference between life and death in a pandemic.

It’s true that two teenagers in Japan attempted suicide on Tamiflu, and 10 others went into a coma and died. But flu sometimes affects the brain, causing strange behaviour. Since Tamiflu is now routinely given to children with flu in Japan, it is not surprising neurological effects are seen in a few of those taking the drug.

But a causal link is improbable. What is worrying is that Tamiflu did not prevent the neurological complications.

Pandemics start when bird and human flu viruses recombine in pigs
That has long been a popular idea. Flu viruses bind to a sugar called sialic acid on the surface of cells. It was thought that birds have one type, humans have another and pigs have both, meaning pigs can be infected by both bird and human flu viruses. This could allow the viruses to swap genes to create a hybrid pandemic strain. It's a neat theory, but the hybrid viruses that caused the 1957 and 1968 pandemics did not form in pigs. That does not mean it cannot happen in the future. But it’s unlikely with H5N1, as it does not spread from pig to pig.

Fit young adults have the most to worry about, because they have the strongest immunity and what kills you is your immune system over-reacting
This idea appears to have emerged from the fact that older people were less likely to die in the 1918 pandemic than those aged between 20 and 40, plus the fact that immune over-reaction is often how flu kills. One, however, does not lead to another.

Older people probably had some immunity against the 1918 flu because a similar virus circulated for a while during the late 19th century. Younger people were more vulnerable. This was a particular circumstance of 1918, not a characteristic of flu pandemics in general.

And older immune systems are more likely to go haywire. Saying there is "stronger" immunity in younger adults partly means that their systems are more resistant to such runaway reactions.

This is the 21st century, not the dark ages. We can't die of massive plagues any more
Like it or not, we are biological creatures. Plagues can happen. And in the age of mass air travel, we are in some ways more vulnerable than ever.

With flu, we do at least have the know-how to defeat any future pandemic. But even though leaders know death and misery anywhere will have global consequences, we don't have the capacity to produce antivirals or vaccine fast enough to protect everyone. We have 21st-century technology. But when it comes to getting it to people, we are still in the dark ages.

What is avian flu?
Avian influenza, also known as bird flu, is a contagious viral disease in animals, caused by a virus loosely related to human influenza. While all bird species and - less commonly - pigs are thought to be susceptible, domestic poultry flocks are especially vulnerable to infection, which can rapidly result in epidemics among their populations. Since bird flu was first recognised, in Italy, a century ago, there have been more than a dozen strains of virus. Some are almost harmless, while others result in death within hours. The H5N1 form of bird flu is the most dangerous. It is highly pathogenic and extremely contagious among birds, both by air and contact with faeces. Mortality is close to 100%, many birds dying on the same day as infection.

The latest bird flu outbreak, which started in 2003, has mostly affected Asia, where millions of birds have died after contracting the disease or have been destroyed in measures to prevent it spreading.

Since the end of 2003, cases have been recorded in Thailand, China, Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Malaysia, South Korea, Mongolia, Japan and Kazakhstan. In August, it was confirmed in Russia. Since then there have been confirmed outbreaks of H5N1 in Taiwan, Croatia, Turkey and Romania, as well as an H5 outbreak in Greece.

On October 21, British authorities confirmed that a parrot from Surinam had died in quarantine in Essex after being infected with bird flu, which was later confirmed as the H5N1 strain.

If it just affects birds, why the panic?
Around 120 people in Asia have been infected by the H5N1 strain, more than 60 of whom have died. Thus far, most human deaths have been in communities in which people live in close proximity to poultry.

World Health Organisation scientists believe it is likely that the virus is carried by migrating birds. Although it does not easily infect humans, every time it does it increases the chance that the virus could mutate into a form in which it could be passed from one infected human to another.
WHO says that would probably be how a flu pandemic, which is overdue, would start. Mass epidemics have occurred every 20 to 30 years, but it has been almost 40 years since the last one happened. On September 29, the WHO expert appointed to coordinate international response to a pandemic, David Nabarro, said a pandemic would cause anything from 5 million to 150 million human deaths.

The Department of Health's contingency plan says that between 21,000 and 700,000 deaths could be expected in Britain from a flu pandemic. One-quarter of the population could become infected, and another quarter would need to care for them.

What measures is the UK taking?
In common with other countries, the British government's plan to tackle bird flu is characterised by surveillance and containment. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in August asked birdwatchers to help to provide an early warning against the arrival of the infection and has issued guidelines accordingly. Scientists are also involved in examining bird droppings for signs of the influenza virus.

The EU says communication between the public, vets and doctors is essential in alerting authorities to any outbreak of flu.

As occurred in Turkey, when an outbreak is confirmed authorities slaughter poultry in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus. Were it to mutate into a form contagious among humans, authorities would begin a programme of mass treatment, using antiviral drugs and flu vaccines.

The British government is spending £200m on stockpiling antiviral drugs to treat one in four of the population and on 2m doses of vaccines to protect medical and emergency staff in the event of the disease turning into a global pandemic.

Tamiflu, made by the Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche, is the antiviral drug favoured by most governments. It can be taken as a preventative treatment but there is no evidence it will stop people being infected. It might, however, relieve flu symptoms and help the body to fight the virus.
Tamiflu is only available in the UK on prescription and, with governments around the world ordering it, it has become very scarce. It might be possible to obtain online but since prices have increased the British government has warned that fakes are in circulation.

Another antiviral drug, Relenza, is available but it has to be inhaled and is harder to store over long periods.

Stockpiles of the vaccine against H5N1 could be a first line of defence for priority groups while scientists develop a vaccine against the exact strain responsible for the pandemic. The British government will buy sufficient vaccine for the entire population should a pandemic begin and the strain of flu be identified but it would take some months to produce.

The government is briefing doctors on how to deal with any mass outbreak, and the Department of Health has made made information available to the public, as has the World Health Organisation.
The EU has banned imports of poultry products from countries with bird flu outbreaks. Britain's health secretary, Patricia Hewitt, told the House of Commons on October 17 there was no danger to people of contacting bird flu by eating poultry. The Food Standards Agency says there is no evidence to suggest bird flu can be passed on by eating poultry or eggs but recommends ensuring they are properly cooked. The Australian government has recommended washing eggs before breaking them and washing hands afterwards.

What if the pandemic happens anyway?
The Department of Health would have the main responsibility for coordinating the UK's emergency response, with the support of the Health Protection Agency (HPA) - the UK-wide authority responsible for combating the spread of infectious disease. The DoH would establish a national operations room to support the local response to outbreaks and coordinate vaccine distribution to affected areas.

Devolved administrations in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have been asked to coordinate the response in their regions. The HPA has also published an updated influenza pandemic contingency plan, which makes up part of the DoH's overall plan.

In the event of a pandemic, the HPA would set up a strategic emergency coordination centre. It would coordinate clinical surveillance, provide infection control advice, analyse flu strains and issue information to the public and healthcare professionals. It would also advise the DoH on the use of vaccines.

How would the response work on the ground?

Strategic health authorities would receive support through regional public health groups, which would coordinate the work of primary care trusts and hospitals in responding to cases.
All hospital and ambulance service trusts would be expected to put in place the necessary resources to care for people affected by a pandemic in their area, as well as offering help to other NHS trusts.

The Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response would integrate pandemic planning with other emergency planning measures.

BiscLimpkit · Post by **BiscLimpkit** » 06 Apr 2006, 11:22

Mordib wrote:here you go, how about some facts about bird flu... sources are about 2/3rds new scientist articles, 1/3rd a guest article in the guardian a few weeks back. I realise the following might take a whole 5 minutes to read unlike the 2 seconds needed to read a tabloid shock headline but really, do yourselves a favour and hear both sides...

Was that comment made for me Mordib? All I did was announce an article I heard on BBC News...

Those articles are a good read but nothing I already knew, as I monitor BBC quite closely. I said in the earlier bird flu thread that there's nothing to worry about and that the tabloids are experts in scaremongering (i.e. SARS). Even if UK birds have an outbreak of avian flu, it's surely no big deal if you don't come into close contact with them? Remember that there have been no human cases of bird flu west of Turkey...

PS: I'll still probably continue to eat chicken, eggs, turkey etc... but not duck (can't eat cute animals).

bradavon · Post by **bradavon** » 06 Apr 2006, 11:41

You're right Romero we're all doomed

, where's that kitchen knife.

grim_tales · Post by **grim_tales** » 06 Apr 2006, 11:47

Interesting read Mordib. I agree all the papers do is scaremongering stuff with the "OMG we're all gonna die!" type headlines.
Brad did you see the recent documentary on Bird Flu on C4 that looked for clues as to why the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak was so deadly (so this might help us prevent a pandemic of bird flu if it ever arose).
Pretty scary actually.

Mordib · Post by **Mordib** » 06 Apr 2006, 12:39

it wasn't aimed at you Bisc, I'm feeling very bitter about a lot of things right now. rather than killing people i'm taking it out on innocent people in forums. well, not innocent in my mind but still not you.

Kurgan · Post by **Kurgan** » 06 Apr 2006, 14:57

By the way, it's been confirmed that the had the H5N1 strain.

romerojpg · Post by **romerojpg** » 06 Apr 2006, 16:17

bradavon wrote:You're right Romero we're all doomed , where's that kitchen knife.

Er it was a joke

its a load of bollocks and you can count the amount of people who have died on one hand. More people are killed from smoking than this plague will ever kill

grim_tales · Post by **grim_tales** » 06 Apr 2006, 17:26

Thats' all right then

AFAIK bird flu has killed 60 (?) people in Asia.

romerojpg · Post by **romerojpg** » 06 Apr 2006, 17:57

Alright? no. But peope are saying its going to wipe out thousands, if not everyone. Poo. More important things kill many people, Cigaretes kill more people in 60 seconds than this "Killer Virus" has in a year! Its not a stupid virus thing we need to stop, its fags!!!!!

Markgway · Post by **Markgway** » 06 Apr 2006, 20:33

IF the virus mutates into a human form then it could create a pandemic.

I'm sure the scientists aren't saying this for fun.

Whether it will happen is another matter.

We're talking worst case scenario here.

romerojpg · Post by **romerojpg** » 06 Apr 2006, 20:57

Yes and from the facts they know and are holding back its sily to worry really, if it gets that bad then there will be bugger all we can do about it. The 10 million drugs they have made apparently now dont work anyway

classic.

Again its pointless worrying at all, worry about cigs more than some disease which may or may not ever happen I say.

If we are to take it to serious, dont go out your house, dont come into contact with anyone, dont step where anyone has set foot before, basically if its coming there is little we can do really they way the UK population acts. When its on your front door, then do something is the way of the world.

romerojpg · Post by **romerojpg** » 06 Apr 2006, 21:01

The experts say about the confirmed cases in scotland

"DONT PANIC"

the68monkey · Post by **the68monkey** » 06 Apr 2006, 22:01

BiscLimpkit wrote:PS: I'll still probably continue to eat chicken, eggs, turkey etc... but not duck (can't eat cute animals).

You call this cute?!?

That duck's so ugly I wouldn't THINK of eating it!

BiscLimpkit · Post by **BiscLimpkit** » 06 Apr 2006, 22:37

Aye right. That's no duck. I want scientific proof. By that I mean a full technical report and DNA analysis confirming that the above creature is in fact a duck.

Looks kinda delish tho...

romerojpg · Post by **romerojpg** » 06 Apr 2006, 22:53

What about this duck that I snapped the other day

he or she looks cute, well a lot more cute than that thing above! or I wouldnt be taking photos of them, as I would be scared of catching somthing! Hope they dont kill off our local Ducks!

thelostdragon · Post by **thelostdragon** » 06 Apr 2006, 23:01

the68monkey wrote:You call this cute?!?

That duck's so ugly I wouldn't THINK of eating it!

I don't think it's ugly. I still like duck meat, though.

romerojpg · Post by **romerojpg** » 06 Apr 2006, 23:07

It does look quite ill

Yi-Long · Post by **Yi-Long** » 06 Apr 2006, 23:09

the68monkey wrote:
BiscLimpkit wrote:PS: I'll still probably continue to eat chicken, eggs, turkey etc... but not duck (can't eat cute animals).
You call this cute?!?

That duck's so ugly I wouldn't THINK of eating it!

poor burnvictim-bird...

Anyway, we have ducks in our backyard (our backyard edges on water), and I feed them breadcrumbs a couple of times a week.
Not scared of birdflu though...

Also still eating chicken and whatever...
Like Romero said: hardly anyone is dying from it, and it's all a huge mediascare...
Once my ducks start coughing and sneezing, I'll keep my distance...

romerojpg · Post by **romerojpg** » 06 Apr 2006, 23:19

The thing that gets to me was the news, reporting on this outbreak from the scene!!!!!!! hundreds of media people walking all over transporting the bloody virus! thats really clever of them, no wonder its going to spread quick with dumbass media people and peple going to wacth the cameras.

Kurgan · Post by **Kurgan** » 06 Apr 2006, 23:47

FYI Romero, that picture of yours is of a male duck, a mallard. Most male birds tend to brightly coloured.

As for that... thing that Ms. Monkey posted, it would look a lot more better with it's (clearly diseased in some way) head lopped off.
It would also be the first step in getting ready to snack on it

bradavon · Post by **bradavon** » 07 Apr 2006, 00:12

romerojpg wrote:Er it was a joke its a load of bollocks and you can count the amount of people who have died on one hand.

It went right over my head

p.s - Grim no I didn't see it.